Back to title probabilities
2026 Conference Finals MVP · Odds Boards

Two trophies.
Both decided.

Both conference finals are in the books. Brunson powered the Knicks' sweep to take the East; Wembanyama out-dueled SGA across seven games to win the West and reach the Finals. Here's the case for every candidate, by conference.

NYK
East · BrunsonJalen BrunsonNYK · Winner
96.0%
SAS
West · WembanyamaVictor WembanyamaSAS · Winner
96.0%
Series finalKnicks won 4-0 — Brunson named ECF MVP

Eastern Conference Finals MVP

The sweep is complete and the trophy is awarded: Jalen Brunson is the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Probabilities reflect the final vote share.

Field of 4 · vig-stripped
  • NYK
    Jalen BrunsonNYK · G · Winner
    96.0%
    Rising
  • NYK
    Karl-Anthony TownsNYK · F/C · Runner-up
    2.0%
    Drifting
  • NYK
    OG AnunobyNYK · F · —
    1.2%
    Steady
  • NYK
    Mikal BridgesNYK · G/F · —
    0.8%
    Steady

The case for each contender

Players with a realistic path to lifting the trophy.

NYK
Jalen BrunsonNew York Knicks · G
96.0%
Winner
30.5 PPG · 8.1 AST · 49% FG · series +14.6 net
The case for

It's his. Brunson averaged 30.5 PPG and 8.1 AST across the sweep with the highest fourth-quarter scoring share of any player in the conference round. He was the engine of a 4-0 series — voters reward engines, and they did.

The case against

None left — the series is over and the trophy is engraved. The only question now is whether he can add the Bill Russell against San Antonio.

Rising·Named Eastern Conference Finals MVP after the sweep of Cleveland
NYK
Karl-Anthony TownsNew York Knicks · F/C
2.0%
Runner-up
24.0 PPG · 12.5 RPG · 56% FG · series +12.1 net
The case for

Won the matchup against Mobley every night and posted the series' best two-way rating among bigs. The closeout 31-and-14 is the kind of stat line voters anchor to.

The case against

Brunson outscored him in 7 of 8 halves and the panel followed the closer. The award is settled.

Drifting·31/14 closeout earned votes, but not the trophy

Longshots on the board

Sub-3% probability each. They need help — but the price reflects it.

  • NYK
    OG AnunobyNYK · F

    Held Mitchell to 39% shooting across the series. If voters look beyond box score, the defense-MVP path existed.

    —
    1.2%
  • NYK
    Mikal BridgesNYK · G/F

    Hit 45% from three on 7 attempts a night. Spaced the floor that let Brunson and KAT eat.

    —
    0.8%
Series finalSpurs won 4-3 — Wembanyama named WCF MVP

Western Conference Finals MVP

DraftKings moneylines converted to implied odds, then devigged within the conference so the field sums to 100%.

Field of 5 · vig-stripped
  • SAS
    Victor WembanyamaSAS · C · Winner
    96.0%
    Rising
  • OKC
    Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G · Runner-up
    2.0%
    Drifting
  • SAS
    Stephon CastleSAS · G · —
    1.0%
    Steady
  • SAS
    De'Aaron FoxSAS · G · —
    0.5%
    Steady
  • SAS
    Dylan HarperSAS · G · —
    0.5%
    Rising

The case for each contender

Players with a realistic path to lifting the trophy.

SAS
Victor WembanyamaSan Antonio Spurs · C
96.0%
Winner
27.3 PPG · 10.9 RPG · 3.1 BPG · 22 in Game 7
The case for

It's his. Wembanyama out-produced SGA all series, averaged 32.3 in the three Spurs wins, and capped it with 22 in a road Game 7 to dethrone the champions. A landslide WCF MVP and the runaway Finals MVP favorite.

The case against

None left — the series is over and the trophy is engraved. The only question now is whether he adds the Bill Russell.

Rising·Named Western Conference Finals MVP after the Game 7 win in OKC
OKC
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOklahoma City Thunder · G
2.0%
Runner-up
25.9 PPG · 8.9 APG · 35 in the Game 7 loss
The case for

Poured in 35 and 9 in Game 7 and led all WCF scorers in stretches. On a winning team, that close-out line wins the trophy.

The case against

His team lost the series. The award follows the winner, and Wembanyama out-shone him across all seven games.

Drifting·35 in the Game 7 loss — not enough to swing the award

Longshots on the board

Sub-3% probability each. They need help — but the price reflects it.

  • SAS
    Stephon CastleSAS · G

    Ran the offense and defended SGA stretches as a sophomore. A key reason San Antonio survived seven games.

    —
    1.0%
  • SAS
    De'Aaron FoxSAS · G

    15 in the Game 7 clincher and steady half-court creation next to Wemby across the series.

    —
    0.5%
  • SAS
    Dylan HarperSAS · G

    12 off the bench in Game 7 and repeated big moments for a rookie in an elimination series.

    —
    0.5%
Odds via DraftKings. Probabilities = implied moneyline odds with each conference's vig removed proportionally.
Updated June 3, 2026. Subject to change.