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2026 Finals MVP · Odds Board

Who lifts
the Bill Russell?

Live Finals MVP odds with the vig stripped out — Knicks and Spurs only. Brunson surged ahead of Wembanyama after a 30-point Game 1; the two hold nearly 90% of the win probability. Here's the case for each, and the longshots still on the board.

Favorite
Jalen Brunson
Jalen BrunsonNYK · -125
50.0%

Win probability board

DraftKings moneylines converted to implied odds, then devigged so the field sums to 100%.

Field of 8 · vig-stripped
  • Jalen Brunson
    Jalen BrunsonNYK · G · -125
    50.0%
    Rising
  • Victor Wembanyama
    Victor WembanyamaSAS · C · +150
    39.8%
    Drifting
  • Karl-Anthony Towns
    Karl-Anthony TownsNYK · F/C · +2000
    4.3%
    Rising
  • OG Anunoby
    OG AnunobyNYK · F · +4000
    2.2%
    Steady
  • Stephon Castle
    Stephon CastleSAS · G · +5000
    1.8%
    Rising
  • De'Aaron Fox
    De'Aaron FoxSAS · G · +10000
    0.9%
    Steady
  • Mikal Bridges
    Mikal BridgesNYK · F · +15000
    0.6%
    Steady
  • Dylan Harper
    Dylan HarperSAS · G · +20000
    0.5%
    Rising

The case for each

Top contenders — every player with a realistic path to lifting the Bill Russell trophy.

Jalen Brunson
New York Knicks · G
50.0%
-125
Jalen Brunson
29.8 PPG · 7.2 AST · 47% FG · 30 in Game 1
The case for

Dropped 30 with 13 in the fourth to steal Game 1 on the road — the clutch-time scorer of the playoffs now has his team up 1-0 and favored. If the Knicks finish the drought, he is the runaway pick.

The case against

Wembanyama is still the best player in the series, and one cold Brunson shooting night could swing both the game and the narrative. Castle's length is built to disrupt his pull-up.

Rising·Vaulted to favorite after a 30-point Game 1 takeover
Victor Wembanyama
San Antonio Spurs · C
39.8%
+150
Victor Wembanyama
26.9 PPG · 12.1 RPG · 4.3 BPG · 26 & 12 in Game 1
The case for

Still the best two-way player alive and a matchup no opponent solved all postseason. If San Antonio claws back to win the series, the Bill Russell is almost certainly his — a 28-12-4 stretch run would settle it.

The case against

He shot 6-of-21 in the Game 1 loss and the Spurs now trail the series. Voters won't hand it to a player on the losing side, and his floor-spacers have to start hitting.

Drifting·Slipped to second after a 6-of-21 Game 1 in the loss
Karl-Anthony Towns
New York Knicks · F/C
4.3%
+2000
Karl-Anthony Towns
24.5 PPG · 12.8 RPG · 54% FG · 41% from 3
The case for

The Knicks' second-best closer and the matchup nightmare against the Spurs' frontcourt. His shooting is the lever that drags Wemby out of the paint — if New York wins on the back of that, KAT is the co-MVP story.

The case against

Brunson is the brand. Voters rarely split the narrative away from the engine guard unless the gap is enormous.

Rising·Live value if the Knicks win and Brunson is contained

Longshots still on the board

Combined win probability under 7%. They need help — but the price is right if the narrative shifts.

  • OG Anunoby
    OG AnunobyNYK · F

    Inherits the impossible Wembanyama chase. If New York wins and OG holds a generational scorer in check while hitting timely corner threes, the Iguodala-2015 path is right there.

    +4000
    2.2%
  • Stephon Castle
    Stephon CastleSAS · G

    Year-two guard running point for a title team and guarding Brunson on the other end. If the Spurs win and Wemby plays the foil while Castle initiates and defends, this becomes a real story.

    +5000
    1.8%
  • De'Aaron Fox
    De'Aaron FoxSAS · G

    Veteran downhill speed and end-of-clock creation. In a seven-game Finals, one Fox eruption could shift a narrative — and he's gone for 40+ in playoff settings before.

    +10000
    0.9%
  • Mikal Bridges
    Mikal BridgesNYK · F

    Logs huge two-way minutes and could draw a Wemby-adjacent assignment. A defensive series plus efficient scoring is a dark-horse path if the Knicks win.

    +15000
    0.6%
  • Dylan Harper
    Dylan HarperSAS · G

    Scored 12 in the Game 7 clincher and keeps producing when defenses key on Wemby. A breakout Finals run would make for an irresistible rookie story.

    +20000
    0.5%
Odds via DraftKings. Probabilities = implied moneyline odds with the field's vig removed proportionally.
Updated June 4, 2026. Subject to change.