All contenders
#1 West · 2026 Playoffs
OKC
Oklahoma City

Thunder

History is the only thing standing between OKC and a repeat. A Game 1 stumble at home flipped homecourt to San Antonio — but the Thunder have been here before, and they have the league's most complete roster.

Title odds
44.5%
Moneyline
+125
Regular season
68-14
Last title
2025
Western Conference Finals
Next: Game 5 at OKC

Who decides it

The three names that have to play like themselves — and the x-factor who tips it either way.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Lead guard · MVP
32.4 PPG · 6.1 APG · 5.3 RPG

Best mid-range scorer in the league. The Thunder's half-court engine when the game tightens.

Chet Holmgren
Stretch big · DPOY finalist
18.7 PPG · 9.4 RPG · 2.6 BPG

Rim protection that turns drives into prayers. Pulls Wembanyama away from the paint when he stretches the floor.

Jalen Williams
Wing scorer
22.1 PPG · 5.7 RPG · 4.9 APG

Switchable, can run the offense when SGA sits. The closer-grade second creator most contenders don't have.

The path to the trophy

What has to happen — and the one thing that could blow it all up.

The path
  1. 1Hold serve at home in Game 5, steal Game 6 in San Antonio
  2. 2Outlast the Knicks' top-heavy rotation across a long series
  3. 3Win the rebounding battle vs. Wemby, force tough mid-range shots
Biggest risk

Wembanyama is the one player in the league who can shrink OKC's spacing advantage. If he plays 40+ minutes in a Game 7, the model gets shakier than the moneyline suggests.

Net rating in the playoffs
+11.3
Reigning champions, opened the playoffs 8-0
MVP-caliber SGA chasing back-to-back Finals MVP
Elite two-way defense anchored by Holmgren & Hartenstein
Head coach Mark Daigneault · Paycom Center